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Vegas
05-13-2007, 01:51 AM
http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/News/Local/newEAST01ENV051207.htm

DAYTONA BEACH -- Nick Shipley, an Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University freshman, had just spent a week of classes watching two films with polar-opposite conclusions about global warming.

"After watching 'An Inconvenient Truth,' I was relatively convinced," Shipley said one day last month in class. "(Al Gore) did a good job in presenting his points very methodically one after the other. They all build up to essentially prove his point.

"After watching 'The Great Global Warming Swindle,' my thinking completely changed," he said. "I kind of did a complete flip-flop."

College students aren't the only ones being confronted with climate change, its causes and what -- if anything -- can be done about it.

A Democratic Congress, an Academy Award for "An Inconvenient Truth" and continuing United Nations' proclamations have all contributed to the drumbeat for reducing carbon dioxide emissions as a strategy for fighting global warming. Some scientists are concerned the forces that are shaping debate and making policy decisions are not based on truths -- convenient or not.

James Wanliss, a space physicist who teaches at Embry-Riddle, showed students the two films in an honors course titled "The Politics and Science of Fear" because he said more and more the public is being sold one side of an issue with many dimensions.

"I fear that attempts are being made to purposefully subvert the public understanding of the nature of science in order to achieve political goals," he wrote in an e-mail. "Science is not about consensus, and to invoke this raises the hackles of scientists such as myself. The lure of politics and publicity is no doubt seductive, but it nevertheless amazes me that so many scientists have jumped on the bandwagon of consensus science, apparently forgetting or ignoring the sad history of consensus science."

"An Inconvenient Truth," the documentary starring Gore and a lot of graphs, makes the case that humans have contributed mightily to a 1-degree rise in the Earth's temperature in the last 50 years. It uses images of melting ice caps and dying polar bears to nudge viewers toward action for reasons of morality.

"The Great Global Warming Swindle," an anti-Gore documentary, doesn't question the Earth's temperature increase but takes to task the questions of why and what's next. For example, it suggests solar activity may have more to do with the planet's warming than carbon dioxideemissions.

Wanliss said he doesn't necessarily subscribe to either film, but believes his students -- and the public -- should remain skeptical of theories such as Gore's explanation of global warming.

Other Embry-Riddle scientists are less outspoken than Wanliss, but one -- John Olivero, professor and chairman of the department of physical science -- allowed that skepticism is an essential tool of the scientific method.

"Science lives with internal conflict all the time," Olivero said. "Part of what we have to do is continually challenge each other."

That process, they say, leads scientists closer to truths that may be elusive for lifetimes.

The truths of global warming are, if not inconvenient, incomprehensible, Wanliss argues.

"The atmosphere is incredibly complicated, and we know very little about it," he said. "We are studying a system which is so big . . . we don't know what all the variables are."

Pointing to quotes in magazine articles, Wanliss says Gore and the producers of the "Swindle" film are purposefully overstating their science as a means to a political end.

His views are certainly controversial.

Penelope Canan, a professor of sociology at the University of Central Florida, leans toward Gore's way of thinking.

"There's really no doubt that human activities have altered the global carbon cycle and the natural balances that have thickened the blanket of greenhouse gases that have kept our planet like Baby Bear's soup for thousands of years," she said in an e-mail. "I am certain that the data presented by Al Gore was digested by hundreds of thousands of research hours and peer-reviewed data by the world's leading scientists."

Sam Rabin, a freshman activist at Stetson University who helped screen "An Inconvenient Truth" on his campus, said many policymakers avoid difficult decisions that may come from carbon dioxide emission limitations, while journalists ramp up the skeptics' arguments in the name of balance.

"This is horribly misguided and counterproductive," Rabin wrote in an e-mail. "There is virtually no scientific debate about global warming or its cause."

But Wanliss' students at Embry-Riddle leaned toward the skeptical. The professor said that is an important lesson about science.

"You want certainty, but it's hard to get that," he said. "Science isn't about certainty."

LSU
05-13-2007, 01:55 AM
Sounds like the kid is easily swayed. If he's basing his opinions based solely on one movie or another (or 2 movies), he's not basing them on much.


Damn liberal universities teaching their strict liberal views.

Ed Who?
05-14-2007, 07:33 AM
Sounds like the kid is easily swayed. If he's basing his opinions based solely on one movie or another (or 2 movies), he's not basing them on much.


Damn liberal universities teaching their strict liberal views.

Is the guy right? Does the political maneuvering impede the progress? I think so. And that goes for both sides. This has come down to a political issue rather than a scientific issue.

And being a scientist, there are always unknowns when you're dealing with a phenomenon like this. But the politics have drawn politicians to start averring these hypotheses as fact. Rather than portraying human-influenced acceleration as an explanation that has merit, instead it's stated enumerable times as concrete and unquestionable. Why? Because change doesn't happen if something is "borderline" or "questionable."

The last 30 years have hinged upon certain scientific results being cemented into the ground, when not all tests are conclusive. The secondhand smoke debate is probably the most far-reaching science-driven policy that's hit this country, and there are still many who have inhaled direct cigarette smoke for 70 years and are still fit. My grandfather lived 'til he was in his 80's (and had a decent quality of life into his 70's) and smoked freaking unfiltered Lucky Strikes nearly his entire life. Why is that?

We are a reactionary society. I hate cigarette smoke. I support the ridding of this country of smoking, especially indoors. But for me it's about inconvenience as much as health. I suspect there are significant health risks associated from smoking, but again to use science as the sole reason seems risky. But it's become a landmark in this country's development, and for the most part it has been a benchmark for leading this push against global warming. If you can turn a 50/50 issue into a given through political maneuvering, you can succeed.

LSU
05-14-2007, 09:14 AM
Is the guy right? Does the political maneuvering impede the progress? I think so. And that goes for both sides. This has come down to a political issue rather than a scientific issue.

And being a scientist, there are always unknowns when you're dealing with a phenomenon like this. But the politics have drawn politicians to start averring these hypotheses as fact. Rather than portraying human-influenced acceleration as an explanation that has merit, instead it's stated enumerable times as concrete and unquestionable. Why? Because change doesn't happen if something is "borderline" or "questionable."

The last 30 years have hinged upon certain scientific results being cemented into the ground, when not all tests are conclusive. The secondhand smoke debate is probably the most far-reaching science-driven policy that's hit this country, and there are still many who have inhaled direct cigarette smoke for 70 years and are still fit. My grandfather lived 'til he was in his 80's (and had a decent quality of life into his 70's) and smoked freaking unfiltered Lucky Strikes nearly his entire life. Why is that?

We are a reactionary society. I hate cigarette smoke. I support the ridding of this country of smoking, especially indoors. But for me it's about inconvenience as much as health. I suspect there are significant health risks associated from smoking, but again to use science as the sole reason seems risky. But it's become a landmark in this country's development, and for the most part it has been a benchmark for leading this push against global warming. If you can turn a 50/50 issue into a given through political maneuvering, you can succeed.



You ask why some people can tolerate things better than others...it's the same answer for everything of this nature...diversity of the genetic code. Some people are more resistant to things, whether it be a better immune system or what have you.

And as for politicians glomming onto the science, I don't disagree. But the politicians don't make the science wrong. Or right, for that matter.


As for the guy being right, which guy? The student or the professor teaching? I would say the prof is right to teach both sides and show how exactly each side pits itself against the other. That is, the manipulation of numbers, words, language, etc. If you're asking about the student being right, then either way, I say no. You're not right if you base your beliefs on one movie or another. There's more (better) information out there to base it on.

Jiddy78
05-14-2007, 09:21 AM
You ask why some people can tolerate things better than others...it's the same answer for everything of this nature...diversity of the genetic code. Some people are more resistant to things, whether it be a better immune system or what have you.




My code looks like this:

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IBC
05-14-2007, 09:27 AM
"I suspect there are significant health risks associated from smoking"

That puts you in league with many of the scientists that you believe on this issue. Many are the same people that defended cigarette companies and sadi smoking wasn't dangerous or addictive. I have posted the links before.

LSU
05-14-2007, 09:30 AM
Hey Ed, what kind of science are you in?

Ed Who?
05-14-2007, 09:40 AM
"I suspect there are significant health risks associated from smoking"

That puts you in league with many of the scientists that you believe on this issue. Many are the same people that defended cigarette companies and sadi smoking wasn't dangerous or addictive. I have posted the links before.

Listen, my point was that hypotheses have a point where they are proven as fact. The fact we have is that the overall climate is warming. Scientists that are consulted by both sides have compelling arguments for either hypothesis. And it's a tough call, because nobody wants it to be 2015 and we look back on 2007 and say, "Crap, if we had instituted X things wouldn't be this bad." But we are also in a culture where we try to allow people freedom, and do the best we can to eliminate onerous legislation. So that's why I tend to side with the skeptical, at least until we get enough concrete data.

You asked two other Q's:

- As for the guy being right, which guy?

The prof Wanliss, was he right in saying that the films are meant to pervert things?

- Hey Ed, what kind of science are you in?

Org. Chem.

LSU
05-14-2007, 09:54 AM
You asked two other Q's:

- As for the guy being right, which guy?

The prof Wanliss, was he right in saying that the films are meant to pervert things?




Yes, films can be made to exploit topics for the filmmakers particular point of view.

I would be interested in seeing a film that combined the two discussed (for that matter, on any issue) that says here's point A...here's counterpoint B and so on. Otherwise you'll get people (such as the student) that just say, oh yeah, Gore is right on...and a week later say oh yeah, Gore is completely wrong. What happens if he sees another film 2 weeks later that says global warming is man-made? Does he switch again?

And that takes me to another problem...immediate conclusions (and I'm talking about the general populace here, not necessarily the scientists)...everybody is so quick to jump to a concrete conclusion. They don't take things and let them bounce around for a day or a week...they don't think about anything. It's a conclusion right here, right now, based on what I know at this moment. Damn what comes out in the future because it's wrong. Kinda sets the people up for arguing a position based on them not wanting to be wrong rather than actually defending the methods that derived said conclusion.

Perhaps that's why it's also lethal for a politician to have a change of mind...Kerry was labeled a flip flopper for changing his mind...in that sort of environment, a change of mind is viewed as weakness, rather than adapting your ideas to the current knowledge base.

Ed Who?
05-14-2007, 10:17 AM
Perhaps that's why it's also lethal for a politician to have a change of mind...Kerry was labeled a flip flopper for changing his mind...in that sort of environment, a change of mind is viewed as weakness, rather than adapting your ideas to the current knowledge base.

In my mind, the problem with Kerry's position was that his support of Iraq to begin with was a charade. Given his strident dissent to the Vietnam War, it was not very consistent to see him relent and support Iraq. My guess is that he had to support it, because of his interest in the Presidency and the general political climate in the country at the time of the invasion.

Decisions are tough to make, and if you're wrong, the consequences can be costly. And that's why cowering to public opinion can kill you.

LSU
05-14-2007, 10:27 AM
In my mind, the problem with Kerry's position was that his support of Iraq to begin with was a charade. Given his strident dissent to the Vietnam War, it was not very consistent to see him relent and support Iraq. My guess is that he had to support it, because of his interest in the Presidency and the general political climate in the country at the time of the invasion.

Decisions are tough to make, and if you're wrong, the consequences can be costly. And that's why cowering to public opinion can kill you.



That's a good point...re: the part about supporting the war after not supporting a war...

And that's the part that's hard to discern...are they actually having a change of mind, or is it just poll positioning?

Ed Who?
05-14-2007, 10:33 AM
That's a good point...re: the part about supporting the war after not supporting a war...

And that's the part that's hard to discern...are they actually having a change of mind, or is it just poll positioning?

See, I almost said that Kerry would have won if he had consistently been a critic of Iraq. And he might have...he could have been the voice for those who didn't support, and when things got mired, he could have actually been the leader that the Dem Party is lacking right now.

But then again, it's tough for someone running liberal to win in this country. Especially a Northeast liberal. So it's tough to tell if being "the leader of the anti-war movement" would have carried enough weight to earn him the Presidency (or even the party nod).

LSU
05-14-2007, 10:38 AM
See, I almost said that Kerry would have won if he had consistently been a critic of Iraq. And he might have...he could have been the voice for those who didn't support, and when things got mired, he could have actually been the leader that the Dem Party is lacking right now.

But then again, it's tough for someone running liberal to win in this country. Especially a Northeast liberal. So it's tough to tell if being "the leader of the anti-war movement" would have carried enough weight to earn him the Presidency (or even the party nod).

I don't think he would've won with that position...as of 2004 there wasn't the shitstorm surrounding the war that there was in 2006. I don't think taking a hardline opposition to the war in 2004 would've been a good move in the race.

Go_Pack
05-30-2007, 08:44 AM
Im starting to watch The Great Global Warming Swindle... Im not even 3 minutes in and I found a huge lie in it. They are trying to say that global warming activists are saying that CO2 levels correlate to temperature levels but in fact that has never happened in the past. However if you look at the graphs of both of them they are practically paralel to each other so I dont see how you could say that they dont correlate. Ill keep watching, but I cant even imagine what other garbage they'd spill out.

Go_Pack
05-30-2007, 08:59 AM
I thought it was a lot of load so i didnt have time to watch the entire thing but I found an interesting rebuttal against the Great Global Warming Swindle... Turns out, they conviently lied about professors credentials and many have ties to fossil fuel industries. Thats like having cigarette companies determine whether nicotine is addictive or not

http://www.chase-it.com/climate/the_great_global_warming_swindle-A_rebuttal.pdf

Ed Who?
05-30-2007, 11:31 AM
I thought it was a lot of load so i didnt have time to watch the entire thing but I found an interesting rebuttal against the Great Global Warming Swindle... Turns out, they conviently lied about professors credentials and many have ties to fossil fuel industries. Thats like having cigarette companies determine whether nicotine is addictive or not

http://www.chase-it.com/climate/the_great_global_warming_swindle-A_rebuttal.pdf

Because, like, the scientists who tout Accelerated Global Warming have no ties to any politicians or ideologues who agree.