Durable Goods Orders Rise by 5.2 Percent

[Vegas]

More good news:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/01/29/national/w053252S91.DTL

Orders to factories for big-ticket manufactured goods soared in December by the largest amount in five months, welcome news for an economy buffeted by talk of recession.

The 5.2 percent increase in orders was a surprise finish for the manufacturing sector at year's end — a segment of the economy considered to have had a poor year.

The increase in orders, as reported Tuesday by the Commerce Department, was far larger than had been expected. The strength came from a big increase in demand for commercial aircraft, but even excluding the transportation sector, orders posted a solid 2.6 percent gain.

The December orders increase was more than double what had been expected. Analysts were looking for a much weaker performance, given that a key gauge of manufacturing activity had fallen to the weakest reading since April 2003. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index dipped to 47.7 for December. Any reading below 50 is considered recession territory for manufacturing.

The unexpectedly big jump in December closed out a lackluster year for manufacturers. Orders for the total year managed to rise by just 0.97 percent following much bigger increases of 6.31 percent in 2006 and 9.45 percent in 2005. It was the poorest showing since orders actually fell by 3.17 percent in 2002, a year when the country was still struggling to emerge from the 2001 recession.

The strength in December was led by an 11.3 percent rise in demand for transportation products. That reflected an 11.3 percent jump in orders for commercial aircraft which offset a 2.3 percent fall in demand for autos and auto parts as automakers continue to struggle with weak demand as gasoline prices have surged.

The increase in demand for commercial aircraft had been expected, given that Boeing reported receiving orders for 277 aircraft in December, up from 177 in November. The widespread strength outside of transportation was a surprise although economists cautioned that it may not last given the weakening overall economy.

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, predicted that the orders reports in coming months will likely "turn rapidly south" as the slowdown depresses manufacturing activity.

A key category of business investment, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose by 4.4 percent in December, the first increase in this closely watched category since September, and the biggest increase since last March.

The unexpectedly big jump in December closed out a lackluster year for manufacturers. Orders for the total year managed to rise by just 0.97 percent following much bigger increases of 6.31 percent in 2006 and 9.45 percent in 2005. It was the poorest showing since orders actually fell by 3.17 percent in 2002, a year when the country was still struggling to emerge from the 2001 recession.

The strength in December was led by an 11.3 percent rise in demand for transportation products. That reflected an 11.3 percent jump in orders for commercial aircraft which offset a 2.3 percent fall in demand for autos and auto parts as automakers continued to struggle with weak demand amid soaring gasoline prices.

A key category of business investment, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose by 4.4 percent in December, the first increase in this closely watched category since September, and the biggest increase since last March.

The report of the strong showing in December came at a time of growing concern that the country could be slipping into a recession as the economy has had to sustain a variety of blows from a steep slump in housing to soaring energy costs and a severe credit squeeze. The problems have, at the same time, roiled global financial markets.

The Federal Reserve was beginning a two-day meeting Tuesday, and the expectation is that the central bank will cut rates by perhaps a half percentage point as further insurance against a recession. Last week, the Fed slashed a key rate by three-quarters of a point, the biggest reduction in more than two decades and its first rate change between meetings since the September 2001 terrorist attacks.

The government will issue its first look Wednesday at the overall economy's performance for the final three months of 2007. Many economists believe that will show the gross domestic product (GDP) was rising at an anemic 1.2 percent annual rate in the October-December quarter, a significant slowdown from the 4.9 percent growth rate of the July-September period.

The report on durable goods showed that the strength was not just confined to the aircraft sector. Strong gains were also reported in demand for fabricated metal products, machinery, computers and communications equipment.

[ryr8828]

I can't believe the media reported that.

[Jiddy78]

I can't believe the media reported that.

It's not just noise anymore on the bad side of things...They're afraid...and acting in response.

[ryr8828]

It's not just noise anymore on the bad side of things...They're afraid...and acting in response.

Afraid? They've been rooting for a recession so hard that they've almost succeeded in causing one.

[Jiddy78]

Afraid? They've been rooting for a recession so hard that they've almost succeeded in causing one.

The media does not control the free market any more than the plunge protection team controls the stock market by hocking government futures...Take it to the conspiracy forum.

[ryr8828]

The media does not control the free market any more than the plunge protection team controls the stock market by hocking government futures...Take it to the conspiracy forum.

So a rumor can't affect the stock market at all?

[Vegas]

I can't believe the media reported that.

The media does not control the free market any more than the plunge protection team controls the stock market by hocking government futures...Take it to the conspiracy forum.

You don't think the media is capable of changing people's perception of the economy? If people only get bad news they won't see things negatively?

[swordfish]

So a rumor can't affect the stock market at all?

You got jiddy in a cakewalk. He'll eventually end up back in the same place he started.

[Jiddy78]

You don't think the media is capable of changing people's perception of the economy? If people only get bad news they won't see things negatively?


No...but I'll change my mind if you can explain the increase from 10k to 14k between 2005 & 2007 amongst all the bad news.

[Jiddy78]

So a rumor can't affect the stock market at all?

Nowhere near the amount selling government futures could....

[Vegas]

No...but I'll change my mind if you can explain the increase from 10k to 14k between 2005 & 2007 amongst all the bad news.

Earnings. That's what drives stocks. Always has and always will.

[Jiddy78]

Earnings. That's what drives stocks. Always has and always will.

That is what also drive recessions. Off to the conspiracy thread with ryr's statement.

*takes a bow*

[Vegas]

That is what also drive recessions. Off to the conspiracy thread with ryr's statement.

*takes a bow*

A recession is defined as what again?

And no, we're not there.

[Ed Who?]

Dave Ramsey pointed out on his show last night that we heard so much clamoring over the 400 pt drop in the market on the 22nd. Yet nobody has really mentioned the fact that, at the close on the 25th, the market was up 100+ pts for the week.

I think we're having some economic downturn, but the media's trying very hard to sell that it's going into a deep recession.

[IBC]

Attention economists, you must never say anything bad about the economy. The media will use it to try to ruin our economy. Thank you.

[Jiddy78]

Dave Ramsey pointed out on his show last night that we heard so much clamoring over the 400 pt drop in the market on the 22nd. Yet nobody has really mentioned the fact that, at the close on the 25th, the market was up 100+ pts for the week.

I think we're having some economic downturn, but the media's trying very hard to sell that it's going into a deep recession.

Why? Conspiracy.

[Jiddy78]

A recession is defined as what again?

And no, we're not there.


I'm sorry...but your direction will lead us nowhere in this regard...I might venture to continue on the conspiracy thread.

[ryr8828]

Why? Conspiracy.

They've run out of things to blast Bush on.

[IBC]

They've run out of things to blast Bush on.

Conspiracy against Bush, and that is why almost 3/4 of America thinks he sucks? Ok. Got it.

[Jiddy78]

I think I've learned something in this thread.

The way to drive a righty insane is to question his optimism and/or his rebuke of another's pessimism...or, better yet, dismiss it....

[Ed Who?]

I think I've learned something in this thread.

The way to drive a righty insane is to question his optimism and/or his rebuke of another's pessimism...or, better yet, dismiss it....

The way to drive a lefty crazy is to present facts.

[Jiddy78]

The way to drive a lefty crazy is to present facts.

I knew something like this was coming.

[IBC]

The way to drive a lefty crazy is to present facts.

Like all the facts that are presented in how well the economy is doing, but the media just wants to make republicans look bad because they are so biased, and also they want to give the country to China? SWEET!

[ryr8828]

I knew something like this was coming.

You deserved it.

[Jiddy78]

You deserved it.


Horsesh*t. How's business?

I'm at the ground level. That's what I do. I just can't disclose information...You know...The whole confidentiality thing...but it's as ugly as it gets in my locale...I keep tabs on back home enough too to know sh*t is not pretty in Chitown...I guess I could go to articles...But Vegas posts most of them, eventually. Maybe I'm just too micro-minded?

I know this...I find it appalling that "conservatives" would blame the media for inciting a recession...when THEY are ones that I would believe would be all about PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. But yeah...Our economy is f*cked because Joe Mediot said the sky is falling....not because our citizens can't balance a teeter totter...much less a checkbook.

That's a fact, eh Jack? Well...If so, then you can keep your facts.


Fine...You want to play that way? Show me some type of FACT that proves that recessions are caused by the media.

[IBC]

Horsesh*t. How's business?

I'm at the ground level. That's what I do. I just can't disclose information...You know...The whole confidentiality thing...but it's as ugly as it gets in my locale...I keep tabs on back home enough too to know sh*t is not pretty in Chitown...I guess I could go to articles...But Vegas posts most of them, eventually. Maybe I'm just too micro-minded?

I know this...I find it appalling that "conservatives" would blame the media for inciting a recession...when THEY are ones that I would believe would be all about PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. But yeah...Our economy is f*cked because Joe Mediot said the sky is falling....not because our citizens can't balance a teeter totter...much less a checkbook.

That's a fact, eh Jack? Well...If so, then you can keep your facts.


Fine...You want to play that way? Show me some type of FACT that proves that recessions are caused by the media.

We fucked up Iraq because of the media too. Just sayin'.

[Vegas]

Horsesh*t. How's business?

I'm at the ground level. That's what I do. I just can't disclose information...You know...The whole confidentiality thing...but it's as ugly as it gets in my locale...I keep tabs on back home enough too to know sh*t is not pretty in Chitown...I guess I could go to articles...But Vegas posts most of them, eventually. Maybe I'm just too micro-minded?

I know this...I find it appalling that "conservatives" would blame the media for inciting a recession...when THEY are ones that I would believe would be all about PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. But yeah...Our economy is f*cked because Joe Mediot said the sky is falling....not because our citizens can't balance a teeter totter...much less a checkbook.

That's a fact, eh Jack? Well...If so, then you can keep your facts.


Fine...You want to play that way? Show me some type of FACT that proves that recessions are caused by the media.

Consumer confidence has a lot to do with consumer behavior, does it not?

There are always challenges in the economy. Always. That doesn't mean that a recession is inevitable. There are plenty of good signs as well.

[Jiddy78]

Consumer confidence has a lot to do with consumer behavior, does it not?

There are always challenges in the economy. Always. That doesn't mean that a recession is inevitable. There are plenty of good signs as well.


Consumer confidence is a result of jobs, production, spending, etc etc....

I guess if you print "Housing best ever" for the next year, things will improve? I think not...If that was the case...It never would have fallen....because all those articles were there...in full force....as the boom was happening...Sentiment changed because the bills showed up in the mail...and the transaction volume dropped like a rock...Joe Mediot was paid healthily by the real estate industry...They throw the money around like candy...That's what happens when it come easy....Joe Mediot isn't their enemy...if yer looking for a motive....But that's under the assumption that Joe Mediot even matters in this regard.

He doesn't.

[Ed Who?]

Consumer confidence is a result of jobs, production, spending, etc etc.....

Because Joe Average follows the indexes, unemployment rate, production numbers, etc. etc. very closely. He absolutely doesn't depend upon the media to tell him how those numbers relate to previous months.

Of course, when it's up, it doesn't make very good news. Nobody watches the news to hear the good stuff; otherwise, you'd have a ton of Iraqis discussing every night how grateful they are to have Saddam Hussein ousted.

[ryr8828]

Consumer confidence is a result of jobs, production, spending, etc etc....

I guess if you print "Housing best ever" for the next year, things will improve? I think not...If that was the case...It never would have fallen....because all those articles were there...in full force....as the boom was happening...Sentiment changed because the bills showed up in the mail...and the transaction volume dropped like a rock...Joe Mediot was paid healthily by the real estate industry...They throw the money around like candy...That's what happens when it come easy....Joe Mediot isn't their enemy...if yer looking for a motive....But that's under the assumption that Joe Mediot even matters in this regard.

He doesn't.

I don't think most average people are going to run out and buy a house when all they read about in the paper is "Recession is looming".

Prove to me that we're in, or on the verge of a recession.

Then prove to me how much it matters.

[Jiddy78]

Because Joe Average follows the indexes, unemployment rate, production numbers, etc. etc. very closely. He absolutely doesn't depend upon the media to tell him how those numbers relate to previous months.

Of course, when it's up, it doesn't make very good news. Nobody watches the news to hear the good stuff; otherwise, you'd have a ton of Iraqis discussing every night how grateful they are to have Saddam Hussein ousted.


Just like a recession, Joe Mediot does not predict the outcome of a war....But if you think he does, I'd LOVE to hear that reasoning.

[BoredWithNoSB]

Just like a recession, Joe Mediot does not predict the outcome of a war....But if you think he does, I'd LOVE to hear that reasoning.

Whenever somebody says things are going poorly a terrorist gets his wings.

[IBC]

Because Joe Average follows the indexes, unemployment rate, production numbers, etc. etc. very closely. He absolutely doesn't depend upon the media to tell him how those numbers relate to previous months.

Of course, when it's up, it doesn't make very good news. Nobody watches the news to hear the good stuff; otherwise, you'd have a ton of Iraqis discussing every night how grateful they are to have Saddam Hussein ousted.

Not a poll man. Google it to understand it.

BTW, Iraqis aren't saying that. Look at any Iraqi polls, they want us out now. However, I am sure you have some good info (read facts) as to how Iraqis want us there. *waiting patiently*

http://www.iraqanalysis.org/info/55

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/26/AR2006092601721.html

There are lots more.

Actually, you know what Ed. Why don't you just attack the polls as being biased, then offer up no alternatives.

[ryr8828]

Don Henley knows better than you.

I make my living off the evening news
Just give me something-something I can use
People love it when you lose,
They love dirty laundry

Well, I coulda been an actor, but I wound up here
I just have to look good, I dont have to be clear
Come and whisper in my ear
Give us dirty laundry

Kick em when theyre up
Kick em when theyre down
Kick em when theyre up
Kick em when theyre down
Kick em when theyre up
Kick em when theyre down
Kick em when theyre up
Kick em all around

We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blonde who
Comes on at five
She can tell you bout the plane crash with a gleam
In her eye
Its interesting when people die-
Give us dirty laundry

Can we film the operation?
Is the head dead yet?
You know, the boys in the newsroom got a
Running bet
Get the widow on the set!
We need dirty laundry

You dont really need to find out whats going on
You dont really want to know just how far its gone
Just leave well enough alone
Eat your dirty laundry

Kick em when theyre up
Kick em when theyre down
Kick em when theyre up
Kick em when theyre down

Kick em when theyre up
Kick em when theyre down
Kick em when theyre stiff
Kick em all around

Dirty little secrets
Dirty little lies
We got our dirty little fingers in everybodys pie
We love to cut you down to size
We love dirty laundry

We can do the innuendo
We can dance and sing
When its said and done we havent told you a thing
We all know that crap is king
Give us dirty laundry!

[IBC]

Not a poll man. Google it to understand it.

BTW, Iraqis aren't saying that. Look at any Iraqi polls, they want us out now. However, I am sure you have some good info (read facts) as to how Iraqis want us there. *waiting patiently*

http://www.iraqanalysis.org/info/55

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/26/AR2006092601721.html

There are lots more.

Actually, you know what Ed. Why don't you just attack the polls as being biased, then offer up no alternatives.

Actually Ed, go with this one:
The Iraqis are being inundated withliberal media bias telling them the war is going bad...

[ryr8828]

Actually Ed, go with this one:
The Iraqis are being inundated withliberal media bias telling them the war is going bad...

The liberals in the Senate hardly mention the war anymore. It must be going great.

[Jiddy78]

I don't think most average people are going to run out and buy a house when all they read about in the paper is "Recession is looming".

Prove to me that we're in, or on the verge of a recession.

Then prove to me how much it matters.

I don't know if we're on the verge of a recession or not...I know Florida is already having one. The only thing I DO know is that no recession is caused by the media...and if there is some sort of effect...It is de minimus....Immaterial...Minor...Puny...Paltry....e tc.

It is tin-foil hat material.

[ryr8828]

I don't know if we're on the verge of a recession or not...I know Florida is already having one. The only thing I DO know is that no recession is caused by the media...and if there is some sort of effect...It is de minimus....Immaterial...Minor...Puny...Paltry....e tc.

It is tin-foil hat material.

We have a ton of stuff out for bid right now. A ton.

[IBC]

The liberals in the Senate hardly mention the war anymore. It must be going great.

Awesome. Americans still die, Iraqis still have no control over their own country, and we may be there for 10 more years! YESSS!!!!!

[ryr8828]

Awesome. Americans still die, Iraqis still have no control over their own country, and we may be there for 10 more years! YESSS!!!!!

Has the Iraqi government ordered us out of the country and I missed it?

[IBC]

Has the Iraqi government ordered us out of the country and I missed it?

The people have wanted us out forever.

[Jiddy78]

We have a ton of stuff out for bid right now. A ton.

Actually, on a good note, I did have a construction guy tell me he is cookin' this month (which has been unheard of for the last 9 or so)....Problem is...He laid everyone off so he's stuck having to turn some away. Ahhh...The humanity of it all...

Of course, We're at nominal losses of somewhere around 30-40% in my area (ie...250k housesin 2005 going for 150k now)...Of course at that rate things will go smooth...And I highly doubt your town had this kind of runup...So yeah...That might appeal to some people with actual money. I can see why some transaction activity would improve there. The deals are starting to show.

[ryr8828]

The people have wanted us out forever.

You've spoken to them?

[IBC]

You've spoken to them?

Nope, many people have though, and many polls have been done. All of them agree with me. None of them agree with you.

[ryr8828]

Nope, many people have though, and many polls have been done. All of them agree with me. None of them agree with you.

If things are as bad as you always say, I would think a poll would be difficult and dangerous.
Is Al Quaeda included in these polls?

[Vegas]

Nope, many people have though, and many polls have been done. All of them agree with me. None of them agree with you.

None of them? That's just not true.

[FatDumbOxycontinAbuser]

You don't think the media is capable of changing people's perception of the economy? If people only get bad news they won't see things negatively?

This is gold Jerry, pure gold!

[FatDumbOxycontinAbuser]

This whole thread is amazing. It is like many of you have had brain transplants in the intervening two years.

[Jiddy78]

This whole thread is amazing. It is like many of you have had brain transplants in the intervening two years.

I liken the whole transformation of this board in 2008 to a caterpillar cocooning then becoming a butterfly...I'd say the actually cocooning occurred during summer and early fall of 2008, then the butterfly showed his wings when the devil himself was officially elected.

It was a fascinating transformation...One of the best I've ever witnessed...Nature's got nothing on humanity.

[FatDumbOxycontinAbuser]

I liken the whole transformation of this board in 2008 to a caterpillar cocooning then becoming a butterfly...I'd say the actually cocooning occurred during summer and early fall of 2008, then the butterfly showed his wings when the devil himself was officially elected.

It was a fascinating transformation...One of the best I've ever witnessed...Nature's got nothing on humanity.


It is really unbelievable. Politics rules above all apparently. Logic is of no consequence.

[Jiddy78]

It is really unbelievable. Politics rules above all apparently. Logic is of no consequence.

If it makes you feel better, after you are banned and the next token left-winger shows up, I'll make sure to regale the folk tales of partisan patriot past again....

[pnkpanther]

search for our horrible economy

another good thread

[FatDumbOxycontinAbuser]

If it makes you feel better, after you are banned and the next token left-winger shows up, I'll make sure to regale the folk tales of partisan patriot past again....

Sweet. I look forward to my martyrdom status.

Edit: Don't you have to break the rules to be banned?

[BoredWithNoSB]

Edit: Don't you have to break the rules to be banned?

Two part process:
1- not be conservative. (exempts SuperGonzo & others)
2- break the rules.

[thejerseydevil]

Two part process:
1- not be conservative. (exempts SuperGonzo & others)
2- break the rules.

What rule did he violate?

Cause I believe #1 is the sole reason.
Of course, only one person on this entire messageboard could actually offer a definition of "being conservative" so #1 isn't really valid anyway.

[mosaic]

Since, to the naked eye, it doesnt look like he outwardly broke a rule, Id venture to guess he's broken the "private msgs arent private" rule. Or questioned authority privately.

But does it really matter either way? Jiddy called it, isnt that ALL that matters???

[Jiddy78]

Since, to the naked eye, it doesnt look like he outwardly broke a rule, Id venture to guess he's broken the "private msgs arent private" rule. Or questioned authority privately.

But does it really matter either way? Jiddy called it, isnt that ALL that matters???

He was the most left liberal on the board...That guy has no chance here...Really...It was like saying the sun will rise in the east. Not impressive at all...

As to why he was banned? No clue. I'm highly doubtful it was reputation count though...

[Jiddy78]

Although, it would be nice if I can keep getting the token "gonna be banned" liberal to post on this thread...For nostalgia over the years as we go on...If I get a whiff of him, I'll ask him kindly to do so...

[mosaic]

I'm highly doubtful it was reputation count though...

Wouldnt that be a liberal thing to do?