Where's Vegas XI?

[Jiddy78]

Might as well start another Where's Vegas thread on a positive note...You know...The one that always wows 'em with it's inflated numbers....The jobs report!

Let's have a look here shall we?

Dow 12,845.70 - 198.26
NASDAQ 2,522.42 - 80.26
S&P 1,418.51 - 28.65

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080104/wall_street.html

Stocks Fall After Weak Jobs Reading

http://artfiles.art.com/images/-/Andrew-Holden/Portrait-of-a-Surprised-Baby-Photographic-Print-C12139011.jpeg

[Vegas]

I wrote January call option contracts in late December, which are all turning useless. I figured that there would be a lot of profit taking early in the year as there usually is. I'm kicking around whether to wait out the option contracts or to close them out and roll the positions into February. If the market doesn't show some upside soon, I'll probably close out and sell lower strikes.

[Jiddy78]

I wrote January call option contracts in late December, which are all turning useless. I figured that there would be a lot of profit taking early in the year as there usually is. I'm kicking around whether to wait out the option contracts or to close them out and roll the positions into February. If the market doesn't show some upside soon, I'll probably close out and sell lower strikes.

If you go broke, I expect you to finance my lobster.

[Vegas]

If you go broke, I expect you to finance my lobster.

I'll definitely keep that in mind.

If I get back to Florida, I'd still like to buy you dinner.

[Jiddy78]

We are approaching a pivotal point in the Jiddy "The Dow is f*cked" prediction:

$12,099.05 would be halfway between the high and 10k...Just a few more down days is all we need...Let's get 'er done.

[Vegas]

We are approaching a pivotal point in the Jiddy "The Dow is f*cked" prediction:

$12,099.05 would be halfway between the high and 10k...Just a few more down days is all we need...Let's get 'er done.

12,600 is after the selloff, which is probably based on beginning of year profit taking. I don't think we'll see 12,100.

[Jiddy78]

12,600 is after the selloff, which is probably based on beginning of year profit taking. I don't think we'll see 12,100.

Probably indeed.

[Jiddy78]

Has the plunge protection team come to thwart my dastardly plan?

[Vegas]

Has the plunge protection team come to thwart my dastardly plan?

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=%5EDJI

Apparently.

[Jiddy78]

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=%5EDJI

Apparently.

That's a good old-fashioned bear ramshank right there....

[Vegas]

That's a good old-fashioned bear ramshank right there....

We'll see. I haven't done anything with my short calls. They expire next week. I'll probably re-sell the same positions for next month.

[Jiddy78]

All rallies being sold....Bear market's in flight! Afternoon delight!

[Vegas]

All rallies being sold....Bear market's in flight! Afternoon delight!

My short calls are useless. I can eat for another week.

[Jiddy78]

My short calls are useless. I can eat for another week.

Better step it up. I'm ordering extra butter.

[Jiddy78]

12,600 is after the selloff, which is probably based on beginning of year profit taking. I don't think we'll see 12,100.

How about now? ;)

[Vegas]

How about now? ;)

We'll get there in a couple of days from momentum at least.

[Jiddy78]

We'll get there in a couple of days from momentum at least.

Halfway home. ;)

[Jiddy78]

We'll get there in a couple of days from momentum at least.


Or one...


YAHTZEE!

[IBC]

12113.12

[Jiddy78]

12113.12

It bounced.

Poor 201k's.

[Vegas]

It bounced.

Poor 201k's.

Was it a dead cat bounce? We'll probably know on Monday.

[Jiddy78]

Was it a dead cat bounce? We'll probably know on Monday.

Government weekend greenprint MUST be defended.

Hammerin' Hank on the Today.

Bush handing out money.

Glenn Beck is riding this thing...Even had a little "economic crisis" graphic hovering in the corner of the screen during his show yesterday.

Good times.

[Jiddy78]

C'mon Vegas...I thought IBD would have a witty response to all of this by now....I like the positive spin. Bring it!

[IBC]

Back below 12,100, will we drop below 12 today? What will be the low during this "downturn" Jiddy?

[Jiddy78]

Back below 12,100, will we drop below 12 today? What will be the low during this "downturn" Jiddy?

Predicting is a fool's game, honestly. But I'm just using simple common sense here...In 2005, the Dow was roughly around 10k...give or take...Pretty much everything I've seen in a good number of businesses has been run on margin up to that point and beyond...Following with that being the "high" on the housing market...I expect the market to follow suit and go right back to that point. I really don't think we, as a country, have done sh*t better since that point...and actually have done worse...and all these numbers are hidden by ridiculous amounts of inflation...which is finally being caught up to on the expense side of companies' equations....so the "gains" being touted over these past few are not quite what we thought they were. Look all around you...How many things are buy now pay later? How much is rob Peter to pay Paul? The banks are the ones funding these shenanigans...Guess who's really f*cked at the moment with people throwing keys on the table? Really it seems all to clear to me...But hey, I'm not Nostradamus any more than he was.

(example: Imagine a sober individual being 10k or so. Drunk being 14k. I think we're somewhere in the hangover to return to sober.)

[IBC]

Predicting is a fool's game, honestly. But I'm just using simple common sense here...In 2005, the Dow was roughly around 10k...give or take...Pretty much everything I've seen in a good number of businesses has been run on margin up to that point and beyond...Following with that being the "high" on the housing market...I expect the market to follow suit and go right back to that point. I really don't think we, as a country, have done sh*t better since that point...and actually have done worse...and all these numbers are hidden by ridiculous amounts of inflation...which is finally being caught up to on the expense side of companies' equations....so the "gains" being touted over these past few are not quite what we thought they were. Look all around you...How many things are buy now pay later? How much is rob Peter to pay Paul? The banks are the ones funding these shenanigans...Guess who's really f*cked at the moment with people throwing keys on the table? Really it seems all to clear to me...But hey, I'm not Nostradamus any more than he was.

(example: Imagine a sober individual being 10k or so. Drunk being 14k. I think we're somewhere in the hangover to return to sober.)

Alright man. We should just have a little hair of the dog".

[Jiddy78]

Alright man. We should just have a little hair of the dog".

I have no idea what this means.

[IBC]

I have no idea what this means.

It is a drink in the early afternoon to rid yourself of a hangover, using your analogy of course.

[Jiddy78]

It is a drink in the early afternoon to rid yourself of a hangover, using your analogy of course.

Democrats usually kick you in the balls while you reach for said drink-then drink it over your writhing in pain body, just so you know.

[IBC]

Democrats usually kick you in the balls while you reach for said drink-then drink it over your writhing in pain body, just so you know.

Just like me!

[Jiddy78]

Democrats usually kick you in the balls while you reach for said drink-then drink it over your writhing in pain body, just so you know.

I should qualify this a bit and add "Unless you are in the public sector. Then yer fine."

[Jiddy78]

Just like me!

Do you work in government?

[IBC]

Do you work in government?

Non-profit, partly government funded.

[Jiddy78]

Non-profit, partly government funded.

Guaranteed pension and benefits?

[IBC]

Guaranteed pension and benefits?

No. Good benefits though, shitty SEP IRA

[Jiddy78]

No. Good benefits though, shitty SEP IRA

Gotcha. I bet those before you have defined benefits. You'll be paying for them with that sh*tty SEP.

[Jiddy78]

Dow 11,850.64 - 120.55
NASDAQ 2,236.01 - 56.26
S&P 1,294.44 - 16.06


Coming around to 10k yet as a possibility? Or do you need more market donkey punches to believe?

[Vegas]

Coming around to 10k yet as a possibility? Or do you need more market donkey punches to believe?

I don't believe 10k is very likely. It's a possibility but would take a bigger event than a selloff.

[Jiddy78]

I don't believe 10k is very likely. It's a possibility but would take a bigger event than a selloff.

Half the country going bankrupt?

Sadly, I just got off the phone with a RE attorney's wife...I think we'll be doing their stuff pro bono this year...My boss and I are suckers for tears....This is shameful what is going on. I don't know what event you are looking for other than the one that is occurring all around us...

[Vegas]

Half the country going bankrupt?

Sadly, I just got off the phone with a RE attorney's wife...I think we'll be doing their stuff pro bono this year...My boss and I are suckers for tears....This is shameful what is going on. I don't know what event you are looking for other than the one that is occurring all around us...

I was thinking more like terrorism. The overall economy isn't nearly as bad as what we're hearing.

[Jiddy78]

I was thinking more like terrorism. The overall economy isn't nearly as bad as what we're hearing.

I'm interested to wonder what comprised a 4000 point upswing in 2 years...if you claim events are to blame...Or does that type of prerequisite only apply to the downside?

I can safely say that our economy isn't one f*cking iota of what it was 2 years ago.

[IBC]

I was thinking more like terrorism. The overall economy isn't nearly as bad as what we're hearing.
By what indicators?

[IBC]

*Waiting patiently Vegas, I wanna know how we are not fucked!*

[Vegas]

*Waiting patiently Vegas, I wanna know how we are not fucked!*

I had to do some work. I'm talking about overall earnings, employment, durable goods orders, etc. There are more people working than ever before.

[IBC]

I had to do some work. I'm talking about overall earnings, employment, durable goods orders, etc. There are more people working than ever before.

Employment, as I understand it, isn't in good shape at all, and is in much worse shape than we are lead to believe.

[Vegas]

Employment, as I understand it, isn't in good shape at all, and is in much worse shape than we are lead to believe.

That's simply not true.

[IBC]

That's simply not true.

Ok, I have read it in a few places. That we changed the way we counted. Numbers are dipping though, correct?

[Vegas]

Ok, I have read it in a few places. That we changed the way we counted. Numbers are dipping though, correct?

Unemployment numbers change month to month and season to season. The overall trend is still a strong job market.

And as far as how we count, that's blown way out of proportion. The changes were mostly made over 20 years ago. It's really not an issue. Keep in mind that the Republicans said the same thing about Clinton several times. It wasn't any bigger of an issue then.

[Jiddy78]

I had to do some work. I'm talking about overall earnings, employment, durable goods orders, etc. There are more people working than ever before.

More than at this point in 2005? Methinks not.

I'm still waiting for the 4000 point event.

[Jiddy78]

I had to do some work. I'm talking about overall earnings, employment, durable goods orders, etc. There are more people working than ever before.

Yeah...in the unemployment office...:p

http://www.edd.ca.gov/onestopextendedhrs.htm

[Jiddy78]

Yeah...in the unemployment office...:p

http://www.edd.ca.gov/onestopextendedhrs.htm

Holy crap!

I just saw the bounce...er...Bear ramshank...


BULLISH!!!

[Vegas]

Holy crap!

I just saw the bounce...er...Bear ramshank...


BULLISH!!!

So was this another dead cat bounce? We'll probably know by 9:45 tomorrow morning.

[Jiddy78]

So was this another dead cat bounce? We'll probably know by 9:45 tomorrow morning.

Admit it...You liked my California link...;)

[Vegas]

Admit it...You liked my California link...;)

The "republican" governor of California is expanding the government everywhere.

[Jiddy78]

The "republican" governor of California is expanding the government everywhere.

Unemployment is costly...All that will be double time. No wonder you guys hate it.

[Vegas]

So we appear to have follow-through today.

[Jiddy78]

So we appear to have follow-through today.

10k was singing to the dow this morning:

Baby when the lights go out...Girl you know you will succumb to me...So baby come to meee...

[Jiddy78]

Stop out rates have been around 2.5....I smell another big cut and a boink on the markets...Whores...They'll fight it all the way down. Honestly, it's for the best...but I don't think they're fighting a winning battle...

[Roy Munson]

Stop out rates have been around 2.5....I smell another big cut and a boink on the markets...Whores...They'll fight it all the way down. Honestly, it's for the best...but I don't think they're fighting a winning battle...
at what point can I get a 0% home loan?

[Vegas]

Stop out rates have been around 2.5....I smell another big cut and a boink on the markets...Whores...They'll fight it all the way down. Honestly, it's for the best...but I don't think they're fighting a winning battle...

If the market fundamentals aren't right, there's nothing the government can do at any level to make stocks go up. It's all about earnings.

[Jiddy78]

If the market fundamentals aren't right, there's nothing the government can do at any level to make stocks go up. It's all about earnings.

No...I fully think the markets will take a big rate cut into consideration...ie the boing...I don't think it will last...but I do think a schwang will come with it...Thus why I said they're fighting a losing battle.

Earnings are suffering...and will continue to do so.

[Vegas]

No...I fully think the markets will take a big rate cut into consideration...ie the boing...I don't think it will last...but I do think a schwang will come with it...Thus why I said they're fighting a losing battle.

Earnings are suffering...and will continue to do so.

Earnings aren't so bad.

[Jiddy78]

at what point can I get a 0% home loan?


Mortgage rates are not directly correlated to the FFR....So never. ZIRP would be a disaster IMO.

[Jiddy78]

Earnings aren't so bad.


"aren't so bad" ???

Oh man...I see cracks in the foundation....Come to the dark side Vegas...Embrace it...

[Vegas]

"aren't so bad" ???

Oh man...I see cracks in the foundation....Come to the dark side Vegas...Embrace it...

If things go bad, I'll be all over some short positions. We're just not there.

[Jiddy78]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080212/wall_street.html


Hmmmmmm.....Buffett....and BEYOOOOONNNNDDD!!!

:p

[Jiddy78]

at what point can I get a 0% home loan?

How about a negative interest loan to cover all the maintenance BILLS, ASSociation FEES, and COSTS ASSociated with hole-punching, fartin'up the place renters?

[Vegas]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080212/wall_street.html


Hmmmmmm.....Buffett....and BEYOOOOONNNNDDD!!!

:p

I'm making money.

[Jiddy78]

I'm making money.

I'm recovering money!

[Jiddy78]

Looks like I missed a fun day yesterday, eh fella? Keepin' them shorts flowin' I presume? ;)

[Jiddy78]

Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 129, or 1.07 percent, to 11,941.



RING THAT MOTHER F*CKIN BELL!!!

[Jiddy78]

We are currently 18% off the high.

18% of our economy...GONE...In under 2 years.

It's no longer "What's in your wallet?"

It is "Who's in my retirement?"

Any questions?


Of course, my posting this probably means we'll have a 500 pernt ramshanking to the upside.

I still hold at 10k, though, for financial sanity's sake.

[Vegas]

An 18% drop in the market means 18% of our economy is gone?

[Jiddy78]

An 18% drop in the market means 18% of our economy is gone?

You tell me.

[Vegas]

You tell me.

Definitely not.

[Jiddy78]

An 18% drop in the market means 18% of our economy is gone?

Would it make you feel better if I spun it as 18% of the country's retirement plan is gone for anyone who does not have a defined benefit plan or social security?

Is that any better?

[Jiddy78]

Definitely not.

18% is speculation I presume?

How would you sell that I trust my 401k any more than social security?

[Jiddy78]

18% is speculation I presume?

How would you sell that I trust my 401k any more than social security?

To be honest, I don't have a 401k...It is a roth IRA...But you know what I mean...

[Vegas]

Would it make you feel better if I spun it as 18% of the country's retirement plan is gone for anyone who does not have a defined benefit plan or social security?

Is that any better?

There's an awful lot of retirement money in fixed income investments, too. Probably more than in the stock market.

[Vegas]

18% is speculation I presume?

How would you sell that I trust my 401k any more than social security?

The stock market always recovers higher. Always. If it doesn't, there won't be any money available for social security or anything else.

[Jiddy78]

There's an awful lot of retirement money in fixed income investments, too. Probably more than in the stock market.

Sure is. But if yer with the major brokerages pumpin' mutuals, is that where your money is? Doubtful. That deduction from ol' Joe Six Pack's pay goes there mainly.

You like to mention how SS is an actuarial nightmare....Imagine you are on a 30 year retirement plan...Assumptions down, contributions made, and in year 10 you have a -18% return....How does that work on the old actuarial table? Get your time value of money charts out boys and girls.

Devastating.

Are we sure privatizing retirement is a good thing?

Capitalizing is just that...Capitalizing. Hey, you gave me money, I spent it...Sent you a form saying you're down 18%. Sorry sucka. Never mind slaving yourself away for those last 20 years...

Solution?

[Vegas]

Sure is. But if yer with the major brokerages pumpin' mutuals, is that where your money is? Doubtful. That deduction from ol' Joe Six Pack's pay goes there mainly.

You like to mention how SS is an actuarial nightmare....Imagine you are on a 30 year retirement plan...Assumptions down, contributions made, and in year 10 you have a -18% return....How does that work on the old actuarial table? Get your time value of money charts out boys and girls.

Devastating.

Are we sure privatizing retirement is a good thing?

Capitalizing is just that...Capitalizing. Hey, you gave me money, I spent it...Sent you a form saying you're down 18%. Sorry sucka. Never mind slaving yourself away for those last 20 years...

Solution?

You're really into the short term. Where do you expect the DJIA will be in 30 years?

[Jiddy78]

You're really into the short term. Where do you expect the DJIA will be in 30 years?

Good question. Where WILL it be without any inflationary state? I see more withdrawing than contributing over the next 20-30 years with the boomers retiring. And if there is an inflationary state, what has been gained?

Why is it that a boomer is so optimistic about something that will occur near the end of his lifetime?

[Jiddy78]

You're really into the short term. Where do you expect the DJIA will be in 30 years?

Furthermore, short-term? It seems to me like I recount everything that has happened since the stock raise-up and meltdown while I was in college...We're spanning about a decade now. Why is it that many others will point to 2001-2005 as great money making times and not look at the aftermath?

[Vegas]

Furthermore, short-term? It seems to me like I recount everything that has happened since the stock raise-up and meltdown while I was in college...We're spanning about a decade now. Why is it that many others will point to 2001-2005 as great money making times and not look at the aftermath?

You dwell way too much on the negative. The market always has good times and bad times. Look at the runups that precede the meltdowns.

[Jiddy78]

You dwell way too much on the negative. The market always has good times and bad times. Look at the runups that precede the meltdowns.

Why is it that listening to a weather guy talk about potential weather many years in the future is lunacy, but listening to a financial guy talk about huge gains in retirement (while the market is getting assraped to the tune of 1/5) is sage-like?

I do find it interesting that, without fail, if you ask a boomer how great things will be for a guy like me in 30 years, they'll recount tales like an old friend...but if you ask them if they ever envisioned what is currently happening today 30 years ago, they would deny it vehemently...How do they NOW have such forecasting wisdom, but then had none?

Perhaps I have more years to age. Perhaps they are talking out of their asses.

I question constant reiterated paradigms because there is no such thing as an absolute. Is my retirement guaranteed if I diligently save in diversified mutual funds? Is not it possible in 30 years, right before I retire, that the market dives another 20%, therefore f*cking me in the ass? Is waste limited to government? Who regulates these guys? Government? I thought it is determined that there is waste already tenfold in a system like SS...so how can I count on "regulation" of anything else to be effective and/or efficient?

Sounds to me like I'm working mostly on trust....and the knowledge and information that is being bestowed upon me is from people who have no vested interest, as their time will be at an end....Sounds like a con to me.

30 year predictions are for fools. As the saying goes, reality bites.

[Vegas]

Why is it that listening to a weather guy talk about potential weather many years in the future is lunacy, but listening to a financial guy talk about huge gains in retirement (while the market is getting assraped to the tune of 1/5) is sage-like?

I do find it interesting that, without fail, if you ask a boomer how great things will be for a guy like me in 30 years, they'll recount tales like an old friend...but if you ask them if they ever envisioned what is currently happening today 30 years ago, they would deny it vehemently...How do they NOW have such forecasting wisdom, but then had none?

Perhaps I have more years to age. Perhaps they are talking out of their asses.

I question constant reiterated paradigms because there is no such thing as an absolute. Is my retirement guaranteed if I diligently save in diversified mutual funds? Is not it possible in 30 years, right before I retire, that the market dives another 20%, therefore f*cking me in the ass? Is waste limited to government? Who regulates these guys? Government? I thought it is determined that there is waste already tenfold in a system like SS...so how can I count on "regulation" of anything else to be effective and/or efficient?

Sounds to me like I'm working mostly on trust....and the knowledge and information that is being bestowed upon me is from people who have no vested interest, as their time will be at an end....Sounds like a con to me.

30 year predictions are for fools. As the saying goes, reality bites.

Look at the history, jid. The market has its ups and downs but always recovers higher.

[Jiddy78]

Look at the history, jid. The market has its ups and downs but always recovers higher.

Historical perspective does not change reality. Reality is that there is no guarantee....and to imply such is ridiculous. Alas, every boomer I know supports my partaking in the stock market...Sounds like a self-serving whore preserving that which he holds dearest. Himself.

Fund the ponzi so I can get more.


If it wasn't a ponzi, there wouldn't be 18% drops in a mere year and a half on the indexes and vice versa.

If 1/5 of the foundation can be greed, speculation and outright fraud, who's to say 50% can't be? Or 75%?

Once the process is tainted, it WILL crumble upon it's own weight of wrongdoing. That is a guarantee that every history continually writes over and over and over again. This is why a man does not swim in a pool of sharks.

[Vegas]

Historical perspective does not change reality. Reality is that there is no guarantee....and to imply such is ridiculous. Alas, every boomer I know supports my partaking in the stock market...Sounds like a self-serving whore preserving that which he holds dearest. Himself.

Fund the ponzi so I can get more.


If it wasn't a ponzi, there wouldn't be 18% drops in a mere year and a half on the indexes and vice versa.

If 1/5 of the foundation can be greed, speculation and outright fraud, who's to say 50% can't be? Or 75%?

Once the process is tainted, it WILL crumble upon it's own weight of wrongdoing. That is a guarantee that every history continually writes over and over and over again. This is why a man does not swim in a pool of sharks.

I didn't mean to imply that there are any guarantees. My point is that the stock market has historically outperformed all other investments and over the long haul has always soundly defeated inflation. And it that trend doesn't follow in the future, it doesn't matter where you have your money invested as a complete failure of the market will only be caused by a complete failure of the economy.

[Jiddy78]

I didn't mean to imply that there are any guarantees. My point is that the stock market has historically outperformed all other investments and over the long haul has always soundly defeated inflation. And it that trend doesn't follow in the future, it doesn't matter where you have your money invested as a complete failure of the market will only be caused by a complete failure of the economy.

Back to point 1.

[Vegas]

Back to point 1.

I'm not so pessimistic as you, jid.

[Jiddy78]

An 18% drop in the market means 18% of our economy is gone?


"Point 1" is this one for you slow ones.

[Vegas]

"Point 1" is this one for you slow ones.

The market overreacts in both directions. Momentum trading and such.

[Jiddy78]

I'm not so pessimistic as you, jid.

So if it is 100%, yes to relation.

18% economy is fine/improving?

Where's the breaking point?

10k is about 30% off the top....Will you concede then? ;)

[Jiddy78]

The market overreacts in both directions. Momentum trading and such.

I find it hard to believe that daytraders' losses comprise 18% of the market, don't you? Don't they all stop-losses at 10% like they read? :cool:

[Vegas]

I find it hard to believe that daytraders' losses comprise 18% of the market, don't you? Don't they all stop-losses at 10% like they read? :cool:

Most daytraders lose more than the market indexes on the way down and lose while the market is going up.

[Jiddy78]

Most daytraders lose more than the market indexes on the way down and lose while the market is going up.

So what's the scoop on the 18%?

We're not taking an ass-reaming as an economy?

That's a lot of dough to just....disappear.

Does Occam's razor apply? That the battering in the market would imply that, yes, there is a battering occurring in our economy.

Or do I have to put on the tinfoil hat?

Why is it illusory to this level? 1/5 is a lot.

[Jiddy78]

So what's the scoop on the 18%?

We're not taking an ass-reaming as an economy?

That's a lot of dough to just....disappear.

Does Occam's razor apply? That the battering in the market would imply that, yes, there is a battering occurring in our economy.

Or do I have to put on the tinfoil hat?

Why is it illusory to this level? 1/5 is a lot.

Since this gets the crickets, let's try another route: So, do you, or IBD-as the case may be, have 10k in your sights yet...or are you guys still in delusion? Just wondering where the permabulls lie.

[Vegas]

Since this gets the crickets, let's try another route: So, do you, or IBD-as the case may be, have 10k in your sights yet...or are you guys still in delusion? Just wondering where the permabulls lie.

I don't put limits on the downside or the upside and neither does IBD. It's all about accumulation and distribution.

[Jiddy78]

I don't put limits on the downside or the upside and neither does IBD. It's all about accumulation and distribution.

I'd say "That'll NEVER happen" in regards to a 10k possibility is a limit to the downside. You disagree?

[Vegas]

I'd say "That'll NEVER happen" in regards to a 10k possibility is a limit to the downside. You disagree?


It's highly unlikely, but never underestimate the power of momentum (both directions).

[Jiddy78]

It's highly unlikely, but never underestimate the power of momentum (both directions).

Highly unlikely is the new never?

I see cracks in the foundation. :)

[Jiddy78]

We are currently 18% off the high.

18% of our economy...GONE...In under 2 years.

It's no longer "What's in your wallet?"

It is "Who's in my retirement?"

Any questions?


Of course, my posting this probably means we'll have a 500 pernt ramshanking to the upside.

I still hold at 10k, though, for financial sanity's sake.


http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h94/JANIBABU/WTF.jpg

[Jiddy78]

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h94/JANIBABU/WTF.jpg

http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/2803764.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF1934A2752006EF5F0ED80B642DEB1D5AE90 5A5397277B4DC33E

[Vegas]

There's money to be made on volatility.

[Jiddy78]

There's money to be made on volatility.

One man's "There's money to be made on volatility" is another man's "Continually testing resistance is a sign of weakness."

[Vegas]

One man's "There's money to be made on volatility" is another man's "Continually testing resistance is a sign of weakness."

You're definitely a glass is half empty guy, jid.

[Jiddy78]

You're definitely a glass is half empty guy, jid.

Half empty means I'll never go thirsty.

Half full means that you want my half.

You can't have it.

It's mine.

[Jiddy78]

You're definitely a glass is half empty guy, jid.

China believes me.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Ehsi

[Jiddy78]

I haven't read anything yet today outside of this board...but I took a quick look and saw the markets up big....Lemme guess, a rate cut is being priced in before the next drop? The Fed is laughable at this point.

[MTVike]

I haven't read anything yet today outside of this board...but I took a quick look and saw the markets up big....Lemme guess, a rate cut is being priced in before the next drop? The Fed is laughable at this point.


I read today in the paper that the gubment was considering another interest rate cut to get the money moving again.

You know your shit in this area.

[Jiddy78]

I read today in the paper that the gubment was considering another interest rate cut to get the money moving again.

You know your shit in this area.

It's like throwing water on a grease fire.

[IBC]

I haven't read anything yet today outside of this board...but I took a quick look and saw the markets up big....Lemme guess, a rate cut is being priced in before the next drop? The Fed is laughable at this point.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/18/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm?cnn=yes

[Jiddy78]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/18/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm?cnn=yes

Truly pathetic....and predictable...and worthless.

The trifecta!

[IBC]

Truly pathetic....and predictable...and worthless.

The trifecta!

We are gonna end up in a depression, aren't we?

[hannitykillspuppies]

currently on a cut-a-month pace since october.

[Jiddy78]

We are gonna end up in a depression, aren't we?

My home is down 45% from the peak. I saw ZERO difference in Chicago. My Bro-in-law reports from Va Beach and Northern Virginia DC...Same sh*t...Frequent a board from Cali...Same sh*t...Vegas is crap...but Vegas doesn't like to share the sob stories...He's an optimist. Trust me...It's the land of gamblers...Same sh*t....Texas...Same sh*t...Arizona, where my uncle lives...Same sh*t....The only rebuke I ever get is the f*cking greener pasture of North Carolina. It's like that place is made of gold.

There's a lot of f*cked people out there. And they, like I will this September, will be lookin' to take back a sh*tload of the loss from the local government coffers and the banks (Federal government coffers ;) ), which will be met with public sector rebuking like no other....Teeth gnashing will be at an all-time high.

Depression though? I doubt it. People will continue to eat and have shelter and nice things....Just a crap ton of people will be downgrading their lifestyles...Many already are. Although spending seems like an addiction for a good majority of the country....and laziness....So there's always the possibility.

You'll see ghost towns, run-down wannabe crackhouses (They would be legitimate crackhouses except that crack dealers only take cash and that doesn't exist anymore) and vacan abandoned strip malls all over the place to replace all the realty signs.

Unemployment, though, according to our government will remain at 4.8% through the whole thing. :cool:

[Jiddy78]

currently on a cut-a-month pace since october.

Disgusting. Every time they cut, I reduce spending by the amount of interest earnings I lose. My wife gets pissed that our budget keeps reducing.

[Jiddy78]

Get your shorts ready...Tomorrow is going to be brutal from the looks of it.

[Vegas]

Get your shorts ready...Tomorrow is going to be brutal from the looks of it.

Maybe I need to figure out how I can buy some puts at today's prices.

[Jiddy78]

Maybe I need to figure out how I can buy some puts at today's prices.

I dunno...but the market is going to get f*cking lambasted unless the Fed pulls something out of their ass tomorrow and over the weekend.

[hannitykillspuppies]

Dow 12,262.65 -341.80 -2.71%

Nasdaq 2,487.94 -62.00 -2.43%

S&P 500 1,368.77 -35.28 -2.51%

10 Yr Bond(%) 3.9380% -0.0870

oil up to $139.

and 5th straight month of job losses.

[Jiddy78]

Dow 12,262.65 -341.80 -2.71%

Nasdaq 2,487.94 -62.00 -2.43%

S&P 500 1,368.77 -35.28 -2.51%

10 Yr Bond(%) 3.9380% -0.0870

oil up to $139.

and 5th straight month of job losses.


BOOM...Goes the dynamite...

[hannitykillspuppies]

final numbers

Dow 12,209.81 -394.64 -3.13%

Nasdaq 2,474.56 -75.38 -2.96%

S&P 500 1,360.68 -43.37 -3.09%

10 Yr Bond(%) 3.9380% -0.0870

[Jiddy78]

final numbers

Dow 12,209.81 -394.64 -3.13%

Nasdaq 2,474.56 -75.38 -2.96%

S&P 500 1,360.68 -43.37 -3.09%

10 Yr Bond(%) 3.9380% -0.0870

They totally sticksaved 400 after the bell is what I hear...More connanigans...

[hannitykillspuppies]

They totally sticksaved 400 after the bell is what I hear...More connanigans...

indeed

[Vegas]

They totally sticksaved 400 after the bell is what I hear...More connanigans...

You've never heard of support/resistance levels?

[Jiddy78]

You've never heard of support/resistance levels?

Yeah, those are the lines that speculators draw for themselves while poleaxing us savers...

[hannitykillspuppies]

Yeah, those are the lines that speculators draw for themselves while poleaxing us savers...

i don't like being poleaxed.

[Vegas]

Yeah, those are the lines that speculators draw for themselves while poleaxing us savers...

So how do support and resistance lines affect you (directly or indirectly)? I'm very curious to know.

[Jiddy78]

So how do support and resistance lines affect you (directly or indirectly)? I'm very curious to know.

Ask the people in tech stocks in 2001...

[Vegas]

Ask the people in tech stocks in 2001...

That's a non-answer.

[Jiddy78]

That's a non-answer.

It was a non-question. Hmmm...Lemme check Wilbur...How does a theoretical boundary for secondary market speculators affect me?!? Did I say that? No. I said it is an imaginary line for speculators AS they poleaxe us....I could care less about the line. Apparently it interests you, as it should, you're busy in the poleaxe department.

How do the speculators affect me? I thought we've hashed that out already. Speculative runup creates irrational exuberance....which is not a good thing for a market that our retirements depend upon. I'm also a believer that at any given time there is a finite amount of wealth...and this market's whore participants CONSISTENTLY bet on future earnings that may or may not be there...and if they don't show up, well then, inflation it is. I've seen multiple times now the actions of our Fed and Government act in reaction to market instances to "prop" (ie Bear Stearns being the recent big one...but you can look at it all...Tax law...Repo auctions etc etc)....That isn't wealth...That is illusion....and that most definitely affects me.

[hannitykillspuppies]

It was a non-question. Hmmm...Lemme check Wilbur...How does a theoretical boundary for secondary market speculators affect me?!? Did I say that? No. I said it is an imaginary line for speculators AS they poleaxe us....I could care less about the line. Apparently it interests you, as it should, you're busy in the poleaxe department.

How do the speculators affect me? I thought we've hashed that out already. Speculative runup creates irrational exuberance....which is not a good thing for a market that our retirements depend upon. I'm also a believer that at any given time there is a finite amount of wealth...and this market's whore participants CONSISTENTLY bet on future earnings that may or may not be there...and if they don't show up, well then, inflation it is. I've seen multiple times now the actions of our Fed and Government act in reaction to market instances to "prop" (ie Bear Stearns being the recent big one...but you can look at it all...Tax law...Repo auctions etc etc)....That isn't wealth...That is illusion....and that most definitely affects me.http://www.ashleysaunders.com/ashblog/archives/gob-pennies.jpg

[Vegas]

It was a non-question. Hmmm...Lemme check Wilbur...How does a theoretical boundary for secondary market speculators affect me?!? Did I say that? No. I said it is an imaginary line for speculators AS they poleaxe us....I could care less about the line. Apparently it interests you, as it should, you're busy in the poleaxe department.

How do the speculators affect me? I thought we've hashed that out already. Speculative runup creates irrational exuberance....which is not a good thing for a market that our retirements depend upon. I'm also a believer that at any given time there is a finite amount of wealth...and this market's whore participants CONSISTENTLY bet on future earnings that may or may not be there...and if they don't show up, well then, inflation it is. I've seen multiple times now the actions of our Fed and Government act in reaction to market instances to "prop" (ie Bear Stearns being the recent big one...but you can look at it all...Tax law...Repo auctions etc etc)....That isn't wealth...That is illusion....and that most definitely affects me.

At any given time there's finite wealth....but that doesn't mean that wealth won't be created in the future. It always has. You keep trying to go back to zero sum.

[Jiddy78]

At any given time there's finite wealth....but that doesn't mean that wealth won't be created in the future. It always has. You keep trying to go back to zero sum.

Not true. The stock market is hardly infinite in its own right...Matter of fact, it is significantly young and untested in comparison to "always."

[Vegas]

Not true. The stock market is hardly infinite in its own right...Matter of fact, it is significantly young and untested in comparison to "always."

I wasn't referring to the stock market when I said "always." I'm talking about generic wealth creation.

[hannitykillspuppies]

Dow 11,575.30 -236.53 -2.00%

Nasdaq 2,340.48 -60.78 -2.53%

S&P 500 1,294.64 -27.33 -2.07%

[Roy Munson]

Dow 11,575.30 -236.53 -2.00%

Nasdaq 2,340.48 -60.78 -2.53%

S&P 500 1,294.64 -27.33 -2.07%
fucking shit...

[Jiddy78]

300 points...Ouch.

[pnkpanther]

300 points...Ouch.

vegas still think economy is better then it was 8 years ago?

[LSU]

vegas still think economy is better then it was 8 years ago?



http://www.godspeed.dk/officerBarbrady.gif

[Vegas]

vegas still think economy is better then it was 8 years ago?

We were definitely in a recession 8 years ago. Our economy is still growing now.

[Jiddy78]

We were definitely in a recession 8 years ago. Our economy is still growing now.

Forget your technical term of crap-recession-2 consecutive quarters of blah blah blah...Spread that crap elsewhere to someone that will pay for a real estate seminar or something...We've been on the decline for 8 years...Nobody realizes it because we're on borrowed time (and dime). Looks can be deceiving.

[Roy Munson]

Forget your technical term of crap-recession-2 consecutive quarters of blah blah blah...Spread that crap elsewhere to someone that will pay for a real estate seminar or something...We've been on the decline for 8 years...Nobody realizes it because we're on borrowed time (and dime). Looks can be deceiving. Roughly 8 years...

[Vegas]

Forget your technical term of crap-recession-2 consecutive quarters of blah blah blah...Spread that crap elsewhere to someone that will pay for a real estate seminar or something...We've been on the decline for 8 years...Nobody realizes it because we're on borrowed time (and dime). Looks can be deceiving.

We've been on the decline for 8 years? Wow. I never thought you were that much of a negative nancy.

[LSU]

We've been on the decline for 8 years? Wow. I never thought you were that much of a negative nancy.



Even the best day of your life was one day closer to your last than the day before.

Trump that negative nanciness.

Incidentally, my wife's Grandma's name is Nancy. And she, at times, truly is that negative.

[Jiddy78]

Even the best day of your life was one day closer to your last than the day before.

Trump that negative nanciness.

Incidentally, my wife's Grandma's name is Nancy. And she, at times, truly is that negative.

Sure...The afterlife > This life.

At least, I sure hope to hell it is...

[Jiddy78]

We've been on the decline for 8 years? Wow. I never thought you were that much of a negative nancy.

"Our economy is still growing" as a general statement ignores way too many factors, and, IMO is extremely naive and deserves an appropriately confounding response.

[pukematrixx]

"Our economy is still growing" as a general statement ignores way too many factors, and, IMO is extremely naive and deserves an appropriately confounding response.

I don't post here often, but this is a near and dear subject to my heart. I agree with Jiddy right now, we're entering a bad run here, I have major concerns about the uptick in corporate default rates, and the effect on CDS positions (and other derivative positions overall). The Fed put out an excellent paper earlier this month on a recap from 2007 and the effect of the illiquidity in the markets on bank balance sheets and when you start putting the math together, things aren't looking pretty - I think we turn the corner later in the year, but it's going to be nasty for a while.

And I haven't even touched inflation...

[LSU]

I don't post here often, but this is a near and dear subject to my heart. I agree with Jiddy right now, we're entering a bad run here, I have major concerns about the uptick in corporate default rates, and the effect on CDS positions (and other derivative positions overall). The Fed put out an excellent paper earlier this month on a recap from 2007 and the effect of the illiquidity in the markets on bank balance sheets and when you start putting the math together, things aren't looking pretty - I think we turn the corner later in the year, but it's going to be nasty for a while.

And I haven't even touched inflation...


Puke agreeing with Jiddy.

I think that's the 8th sign of the Apocalypse.

[pukematrixx]

Puke agreeing with Jiddy.

I think that's the 8th sign of the Apocalypse.

We are still mortal enemies

[Marie]

We were definitely in a recession 8 years ago. Our economy is still growing now.
we were in a recession in 2000? What planet do you come from? Our economy is NOT growing now? Jesus man, does reality ring a bell. You seem much smarter than the statement you gave.

[Jiddy78]

I don't post here often, but this is a near and dear subject to my heart. I agree with Jiddy right now, we're entering a bad run here, I have major concerns about the uptick in corporate default rates, and the effect on CDS positions (and other derivative positions overall). The Fed put out an excellent paper earlier this month on a recap from 2007 and the effect of the illiquidity in the markets on bank balance sheets and when you start putting the math together, things aren't looking pretty - I think we turn the corner later in the year, but it's going to be nasty for a while.

And I haven't even touched inflation...

For the twelfth time (or whatever)...Most banks are bankrupt at this point...They are just offshoots of the Fed now. No Fed bailout...Systemic failure. Period. Nothing more to say about it.

But hey, we all have widescreens and ipods....:rolleyes:

[pukematrixx]

For the twelfth time (or whatever)...Most banks are bankrupt at this point...They are just offshoots of the Fed now. No Fed bailout...Systemic failure. Period. Nothing more to say about it.

But hey, we all have widescreens and ipods....:rolleyes:


this is actually a pretty false statement right now. banks are still solvent on a whole, its the lack of liquidity thas dangerous. look at bank defaults in 2007 and 2008, its higher than normal but still not "most banks are bankrupt" point.

[Jiddy78]

Bankrupt homo.

[Jiddy78]

Was that...Was that a....a...10 in front of that there number for a brief moment there....

Bah...Small potatoes...Get back to me when we reach 4 digits...

[Vegas]

Was that...Was that a....a...10 in front of that there number for a brief moment there....

Bah...Small potatoes...Get back to me when we reach 4 digits...

That's where you turn bullish?

[Jiddy78]

That's where you turn bullish?

Zero is when I turn bullish...because the entire fraud would be over...but considering the last 7-8 years have been nothing but fraud...I'll just go with those gains..

[hannitykillspuppies]

USEuropeAsiaDow 9,847.10 -478.28 -4.63%

Nasdaq 1,837.79 -109.60 -5.63%

S&P 500 1,039.05 -60.18 -5.47%

10 Yr Bond(%) 3.4640% -0.1800


FTSE 100 4,581.70 -288.64 -5.93%

DAX 5,358.95 -438.08 -7.56%

CAC 40 3,699.22 -381.53 -9.35%


Nikkei 225 10,473.09 -465.05 -4.25%

Hang Seng 16,803.76 -878.64 -4.97%

Straits Times 2,168.32 -128.80 -5.61%

[Jiddy78]

USEuropeAsiaDow 9,847.10 -478.28 -4.63%

Nasdaq 1,837.79 -109.60 -5.63%

S&P 500 1,039.05 -60.18 -5.47%

10 Yr Bond(%) 3.4640% -0.1800


FTSE 100 4,581.70 -288.64 -5.93%

DAX 5,358.95 -438.08 -7.56%

CAC 40 3,699.22 -381.53 -9.35%


Nikkei 225 10,473.09 -465.05 -4.25%

Hang Seng 16,803.76 -878.64 -4.97%

Straits Times 2,168.32 -128.80 -5.61%

Vegas will mention about how he'll still be able to eat...then go back to posting articles that point fingers at the dems...Articles from the media, the ones who created this before the dems did...or something...

[Vegas]

Vegas will mention about how he'll still be able to eat...then go back to posting articles that point fingers at the dems...Articles from the media, the ones who created this before the dems did...or something...

I'm a little late to work today. I was buying leaps.

[Jiddy78]

I'm a little late to work today. I was buying leaps.

I always liked leaps...fantastic word usage....Sure better than using investing in replacement of speculating.

[Jiddy78]

Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 9,447.11
Trade Time: 4:05PM ET
Change: Down 508.39 (5.11%)
Prev Close: 9,955.50
Open: 9,955.42
Day's Range: 9436.67 - 10124.03

52wk Range: 9,503.10 - 14,280.00


__________________


So Vegas, got an article the underscores the importance of housing in our economy anymore?

I always enjoyed the "less than xyz% of GDP" argument.

[Vegas]

Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 9,447.11
Trade Time: 4:05PM ET
Change: Down 508.39 (5.11%)
Prev Close: 9,955.50
Open: 9,955.42
Day's Range: 9436.67 - 10124.03

52wk Range: 9,503.10 - 14,280.00


__________________


So Vegas, got an article the underscores the importance of housing in our economy anymore?

I always enjoyed the "less than xyz% of GDP" argument.

I read a great book during my vacation. It was Dr. Sowell's latest book in which he talked about affordable housing prices in different areas. If I get some time tonight, I'll summarize some of what he said.

[Jiddy78]

I read a great book during my vacation. It was Dr. Sowell's latest book in which he talked about affordable housing prices in different areas. If I get some time tonight, I'll summarize some of what he said.

Phone's been ringing off the hook...People like to have their accountant lend them an ear...My ear has been lent quite a bit today and yesterday.

Really unfortunate once you get to the crux of it...but fortune is many times in one's grasp, if they so choose to acknowledge it...

[BoredWithNoSB]

Dow down 20% since 1/1/2000. Any 10 year period baby. Looking forward to working till I'm in the grave. My condo should be worth about 1 Rupee by then and my 401k should be worth about 5% what I've contributed into it.

[Roy Munson]

Dow down 20% since 1/1/2000. Any 10 year period baby. Looking forward to working till I'm in the grave. My condo should be worth about 1 Rupee by then and my 401k should be worth about 5% what I've contributed into it.
Shoulda put all my money in gold...

[Roy Munson]

Buy... Buy... Buy...

anybody else think we're getting close to the bottom?

[Jiddy78]

Buy... Buy... Buy...

anybody else think we're getting close to the bottom?

I wouldn't buy until I saw a turn...Yeah, you'll leave some on the table...but guessing bottoms is fool's play.

[hannitykillspuppies]

Buy... Buy... Buy...

anybody else think we're getting close to the bottom?
no.

[BoredWithNoSB]

anybody else think we're getting close to the bottom?

The riots and food lines have not started yet. No.

[hannitykillspuppies]

you guys ready to go below 9,000?

[Roy Munson]

I wouldn't buy until I saw a turn...Yeah, you'll leave some on the table...but guessing bottoms is fool's play.
Its gotta bottom out soon, unless this is going total meltdown, which I think the fed will be forced to stop.

[BoredWithNoSB]

Its gotta bottom out soon, unless this is going total meltdown, which I think the fed will be forced to stop.

Can't stop the free market baby. The free market knows best and can regulate itself. We don't need no stinking guberment.

[Jiddy78]

Dow 9,049.59 -208.51 -2.25%

Nasdaq 1,716.71 -23.62 -1.36%

S&P 500 958.21 -26.73 -2.71%


Vegas was right...I'll be eating dog food...But it'll be better dog food than most. So that's a plus. :)

[hannitykillspuppies]

you guys ready to go below 9,000?
wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BoredWithNoSB]

Wow. October 26 1998 - October 8 2008:
Invest in a index fund your Gross return 0%.
Subtract management fees you lose.
Figure in inflation you lose BIG

The sky hath fallen.

[hannitykillspuppies]

wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!who' s ready to go below 8,000?

munson i hope you didn't buy in.

[Roy Munson]

I'm still waiting for the bottom. Atleast my company still seems to be doing well.

[Vegas]

I'm still buying leaps.

[Roy Munson]

sell... sell... sell...


Atleast we're all fucked together.

[Vegas]

sell... sell... sell...


Atleast we're all fucked together.

So if everyone sells, who's doing the buying?

[Roy Munson]

I'm still buying leaps.
I'm still waiting. Too many fucktards left to sell low... fucking morons. Panicking idiots are a good way to make money.

[Roy Munson]

So if everyone sells, who's doing the buying?
once I think its gonna turn, I'm going all in.

[Vegas]

I'm still waiting. Too many fucktards left to sell low... fucking morons. Panicking idiots are a good way to make money.

There's a lot of money to be made on leaps right now. I'm not going to try to time the bottom.

[BoredWithNoSB]

I'm still waiting for the bottom. Atleast my company still seems to be doing well.

24% drop in shares price in the last week is good? or have you moved?

[Roy Munson]

24% drop in shares price in the last week is good? or have you moved?
I'm going based on the earnings report. I sold my company stock when it got close to 130. I figured it couldn't stay there long.

[hannitykillspuppies]

open for 10 minutes, already down 550+.

[Jiddy78]

937 now.

[Jiddy78]

Funniest thing about the whole thing is I've tried to log in to my ira for the past 5 days now just to see the damage and can never get in...Keeps timing out. No surprise. The Babylonians are running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

[Roy Munson]

We gotta be getting close now...

[BoredWithNoSB]

We gotta be getting close now...

Still no riots and food lines. We're not there yet.

[Roy Munson]

Still no riots and food lines. We're not there yet.
You should have seen the people at the bank today at the change machine cashing in their piggy banks. Things are reallying tightening up.