Weather

[IBC]

Published on Wednesday, August 8, 2007 by the Sydney Morning Herald/Australia
Wild Weather a Taste of Things to Come
by Marc Kaufman

A MONSOON dropped 35 centimetres of rain in one day across many parts of South Asia this month. Germany had its wettest May on record, and April was the driest there in a century. Temperatures reached 45 degrees in Bulgaria last month and 32 degrees in Moscow in late May, shattering long-time records.

The year still has almost five months to go, but it has already experienced a range of weather extremes that the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation says is well outside the historical norm and is a precursor to much greater weather variability as global warming transforms the planet. 0808 07

The warming trend confirmed in February by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - based on the finding that 11 of the past 12 years had higher average ground temperatures than any others since formal temperature recording began - appears to have continued with a vengeance into 2007. The meteorological organisation reported that January and April were the warmest worldwide ever recorded.

“Climate change projections indicate it to be very likely that hot extremes, heatwaves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent,” the organisation said.

The heavy rains in South Asia have resulted in more than 500 deaths and displaced 10 million people, while 13.5 million Chinese have been affected by floods, the report said. In England and Wales, the period from May to July was the wettest since record-keeping began in 1766, resulting in floods that killed nine and caused more than $US6billion ($7billion) in damage.

The World Meteorological Organisation, which is co-sponsoring a series of meetings and reports on global climate change, is putting together an early-warning system for climate extremes and establishing long-term monitoring systems, and plans to help countries most vulnerable to climate change.

“The average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely the highest during any 50-year period in the last 500 years, and likely the highest in the past 1300 years,” the report said.

Global warming is expected to result in more extreme weather because of changes in atmospheric wind patterns and the ability of warmer air to hold more moisture, said Martin Manning, the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s working group on the physical science of climate change. He said that one year of heavier than normal rains and warmer than usual temperatures said nothing definitive about climate change, but they were consistent with the panel’s long-term predictions.

“What we have projected is an increase in extreme events as the global temperatures rise,” Dr Manning said. “Floods, droughts and heatwaves are certainly consistent with that.”

The World Meteorological Organisation reported the extreme weather occurred in many parts of the world. In May, a series of large waves (estimated at up to 3.6 metres) swamped almost 70 islands in 16 atolls in the Maldive Islands off south India, causing serious flooding and extensive damage. Halfway around the globe, Uruguay was hit during the same month by the worst flooding since 1959 - floods that affected more than 110,000 people and severely damaged crops and buildings. Two months later, an unusual winter brought high winds, blizzards and rare snowfall to parts of South America.

Meanwhile, two extreme heatwaves affected south-eastern Europe in June and July. Dozens of people died, and firefighters worked nonstop battling blazes that destroyed thousands of hectares. On July 23, temperatures hit the record 45 degrees in Bulgaria.

Copyright © 2007. The Sydney Morning Herald.

[Vegas]

Cold weather helps boost mango crop

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/01/1993526.htm

Mango growers in far north Queensland say the recent cold snap has boosted production.

Low temperatures across the Atherton Tableland and throughout the state have damaged many fruit and vegetable crops and caused supermarket prices to rise.

Tablelands' mango farmer Bruce Nastasi says mangoes respond well to sudden and dramatic climatic changes.

"The cold snap couldn't have come at a better time, we really needed it, until the cold snap came along I can tell you now that all the mango growers we were tongue in cheek because what was coming out was moving was just a pure red growth flush, no flower at all and we couldn't have prayed for better weather," he said.

[Vegas]

Bitterly cold weather this whole weekend

http://www.dispatch.co.za/2007/07/28/Easterncape/bit.html

BITTERLY cold weather will force Eastern Capers back to their jerseys and heaters this weekend, with the province expected to shiver in the grip of bitterly cold weather.

The SA Weather Service yesterday issued a warning, saying that a cold front was sweeping through the province, bringing with it rain, snow and gale-force winds.

“Very cold conditions and snowfalls are expected on the high ground of the Eastern Cape,” forecasters said.

Very rough seas, with wave heights in excess of five metres were also expected. The cold conditions, forecasters said, would persist until tomorrow, when things were expected to start clearing up from the west.

[IBC]

You do know that Global Warming doe snot mean it gets hotter everywhere right? It means a drastic change in weather patterns. If you don't know that, you should look into the actual science that you despise.

[Vegas]

You do know that Global Warming doe snot mean it gets hotter everywhere right? It means a drastic change in weather patterns. If you don't know that, you should look into the actual science that you despise.

Don't tell me that I despise science. I don't take that well.

[IBC]

Don't tell me that I despise science. I don't take that well.

I don't mean all science, just the science behind global warming. Forgive me for that implication, as it is not what I meant.

[Vegas]

I don't mean all science, just the science behind global warming. Forgive me for that implication, as it is not what I meant.

And allow me to clarify that it's the interpretation that I disagree with.

[Vegas]

The Atlantic Basin Remains Relatively Quiet

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic



By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

All remains quiet in the Tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave along 80 west south of 20 north looks weak. The weak low pressure area and possible tropical wave along 70 west has moisture and clouds that extend northward to 25 north. This is the only feature that is worth keeping an eye on for at least the next few days. This system has no important organizational structure at this point. That feature will move northwest and bring a surge of moist unstable air into Florida Friday and then move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Long-range computer model output shows a possible weakness in the upper-level wind flow developing in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. That could have some impact on this wave of lower pressure. A tropical wave near 60 west has caused some thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles during the past 12 hours. This wave is interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone where the easterly trade winds and westerly trade winds converge close to the equator. So, most of this activity is pretty far south. South of 15 north the atmosphere remains very moist behind this wave. But north of 15 north we see some very dry air. Another tropical wave near 50 west has a nice but narrow moisture surge northward to about 21 north. But it too has a large area of very dry air behind it north of 15 north with very moist air staying south of 15 north. The last tropical wave we are watching is along 34 west and it too looks weak. Another cluster of thunderstorms will move off the African coast tonight or tomorrow and become the next tropical wave. Long-range computer model output shows no signs of development through the weekend and early next week. A break down in the Atlantic ridge caused by an upper-level trough forming over the eastern U.S. will allow tropical moisture and waves to track farther north and more into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter part of next week. So, this will be an area to keep an eye on next week.

[Ed Who?]

The Atlantic Basin Remains Relatively Quiet


It's just that the weather patterns are changing elsewhere. They must be getting some wicked twisters up on Mars.

[abreu]

Today when I got to work at 5:30 it was already 89 degrees with severe humidity. Just awful. Luckily only a few people were golfing so I spent most of my morning in the pro shop rearranging equipment and clothes and sorting the bag storage, in the air conditioning.

[Vegas]

Summer chill is one for the ages

http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/312002.html

Don't tell Al Gore, but global warming is taking a holiday in Sacramento this week. The maximum temperatures Sunday and Monday set records each day -- as the coolest "highs" for the dates since record-keeping began in 1877.

Forecasters credit a deep marine layer and a potent low-pressure trough with funneling the cool air this way. It's as if Mother Nature cut herself a wedge of Santa Barbara weather and plopped it down on Sacramento's plate.

We're talking, for once, about the all-time lowest maximums, instead of the all-time highest. Monday's downtown high was just 74 degrees, 3 degrees cooler than the previous record of 77 degrees set in 1906, according to the National Weather Service. Sunday's downtown high of 76 frosted the previous low maximum of 78, set in 1962.

"These were the coldest highs for Aug. 5 and Aug. 6 that we've ever recorded," said meteorologist Cynthia Palmer of the National Weather Service office in Sacramento.

As an added bonus, Sunday's lovely weather came in stark contrast to Saturday, when the high downtown was 104. That's a drop of 28 degrees in 24 hours.

"It's unusual to see a drastic drop like that," Palmer said. "The marine layer along the coast really deepened -- and then the trough of low pressure brought that marine air inland."

The normal high this time of year is 93; normal low is 61.

The impact of the sudden drop in temperatures was obvious Monday in east Sacramento's McKinley Park. At 1:10 p.m. under overcast skies, bored lifeguards surveyed an empty swimming pool. Uneasy geese sat in the mud, heads tucked under their wings. Happy tennis players raced around courts that had been deserted and stifling 48 hours before.

Midtown resident Michael DeSerio hardly broke a sweat as he lobbed a ball over the net.

"This cool weather allows us to play later in the day," he said. "I'm typically out here as early as 8:30 a.m., but today we hit the court at 11."

Daniel Tabin, an adviser for Sacramento Valley Teen Challenge, relaxed on a bench as his young charges happily swatted tennis balls.

"The weather, right now, lets you get out of the house and enjoy the day," he observed. "You know, you can always slip on a jacket to stay warm. But it's not so easy to get cool."

Over at the pool, lifeguard Melanie Worthen, 19, zipped her jacket to the top. Only a chilly breeze stirred the water -- but no belly flops or cannonballs.

"This is so weird," she said. "On a normal August day, this pool is packed." She shook her head. "This is so weird."

But the Stiplosec sisters of Land Park -- Charlotte, 5, and Katherine, 7 -- approved of the cool, gray day. They sat at a picnic table with their baby sitter, Melanie Lavoie, and played checkers.

"We like it today," said Katherine. "When it's really hot, even the wood gets too hot to sit on."

"I'm winning," whispered Charlotte.

Probably no lowest-high record will be set today, said meteorologist Palmer. The Weather Service is predicting a high of 80, while the record lowest maximum for Aug. 7 is 75. She said the clouds are expected to break up earlier and that should boost temperatures.

"Wednesday, expect temps to rise to the mid-80s," Palmer said. "By Thursday, we'll be back up to the low 90s, which is more seasonable for this time of year. We don't have any triple digits in the Sacramento forecast for the next week."

She said long-term models indicate another trough and more cool weather over the longer period. She advises Sacramento to count its blessings -- especially in light of the record-setting string of 11 days of triple-digit heat in July 2006.

"We've had a couple of little heat waves this year, but overall, it's been really nice," she said. "Just a great summer."

[pnkpanther]

Summer chill is one for the ages

http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/312002.html

Don't tell Al Gore, but global warming is taking a holiday in Sacramento this week. The maximum temperatures Sunday and Monday set records each day -- as the coolest "highs" for the dates since record-keeping began in 1877.

Forecasters credit a deep marine layer and a potent low-pressure trough with funneling the cool air this way. It's as if Mother Nature cut herself a wedge of Santa Barbara weather and plopped it down on Sacramento's plate.

We're talking, for once, about the all-time lowest maximums, instead of the all-time highest. Monday's downtown high was just 74 degrees, 3 degrees cooler than the previous record of 77 degrees set in 1906, according to the National Weather Service. Sunday's downtown high of 76 frosted the previous low maximum of 78, set in 1962.

"These were the coldest highs for Aug. 5 and Aug. 6 that we've ever recorded," said meteorologist Cynthia Palmer of the National Weather Service office in Sacramento.

As an added bonus, Sunday's lovely weather came in stark contrast to Saturday, when the high downtown was 104. That's a drop of 28 degrees in 24 hours.

"It's unusual to see a drastic drop like that," Palmer said. "The marine layer along the coast really deepened -- and then the trough of low pressure brought that marine air inland."

The normal high this time of year is 93; normal low is 61.

The impact of the sudden drop in temperatures was obvious Monday in east Sacramento's McKinley Park. At 1:10 p.m. under overcast skies, bored lifeguards surveyed an empty swimming pool. Uneasy geese sat in the mud, heads tucked under their wings. Happy tennis players raced around courts that had been deserted and stifling 48 hours before.

Midtown resident Michael DeSerio hardly broke a sweat as he lobbed a ball over the net.

"This cool weather allows us to play later in the day," he said. "I'm typically out here as early as 8:30 a.m., but today we hit the court at 11."

Daniel Tabin, an adviser for Sacramento Valley Teen Challenge, relaxed on a bench as his young charges happily swatted tennis balls.

"The weather, right now, lets you get out of the house and enjoy the day," he observed. "You know, you can always slip on a jacket to stay warm. But it's not so easy to get cool."

Over at the pool, lifeguard Melanie Worthen, 19, zipped her jacket to the top. Only a chilly breeze stirred the water -- but no belly flops or cannonballs.

"This is so weird," she said. "On a normal August day, this pool is packed." She shook her head. "This is so weird."

But the Stiplosec sisters of Land Park -- Charlotte, 5, and Katherine, 7 -- approved of the cool, gray day. They sat at a picnic table with their baby sitter, Melanie Lavoie, and played checkers.

"We like it today," said Katherine. "When it's really hot, even the wood gets too hot to sit on."

"I'm winning," whispered Charlotte.

Probably no lowest-high record will be set today, said meteorologist Palmer. The Weather Service is predicting a high of 80, while the record lowest maximum for Aug. 7 is 75. She said the clouds are expected to break up earlier and that should boost temperatures.

"Wednesday, expect temps to rise to the mid-80s," Palmer said. "By Thursday, we'll be back up to the low 90s, which is more seasonable for this time of year. We don't have any triple digits in the Sacramento forecast for the next week."

She said long-term models indicate another trough and more cool weather over the longer period. She advises Sacramento to count its blessings -- especially in light of the record-setting string of 11 days of triple-digit heat in July 2006.

"We've had a couple of little heat waves this year, but overall, it's been really nice," she said. "Just a great summer."

global=sacramento?

[Vegas]

global=sacramento?

The local weather in IBC's original post is global?

[IBC]

The local weather in IBC's original post is global?

Yes, i believe it is.

[Vegas]

Yes, i believe it is.

You're free to believe so. But there hasn't been a period in history when you couldn't write a story about weather disasters going on around the world.

[IBC]

You're free to believe so. But there hasn't been a period in history when you couldn't write a story about weather disasters going on around the world.
I believe you are right about that to a degree. However, when records are being set all over, and we are seeing historical shifts in climate as a pattern, it is a different thing altogether.

“The average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely the highest during any 50-year period in the last 500 years, and likely the highest in the past 1300 years,” the report said.

[abreu]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070809/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_forecast;_ylt=Aj1CyFcWTJvIZ.rdzvzPScZvzw cF

Government forecasters minimally reduced their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, but said that up to nine hurricanes and up to 16 tropical storms are expected to form, still a busier-than-average season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained its estimate that three to five of the hurricanes will be major storms of Category 3 strength or stronger. The original report forecast up to 17 tropical storms, with up to 10 becoming hurricanes.

Despite the slight reductions and a harmless season so far, NOAA said atmospheric and oceanic conditions mean that the season likely will be more active than normal. On average, there are 10 named Atlantic storms and six hurricanes, three of them major.

"The early season activity really doesn't reflect what's going to happen in the peak of the season," said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA. "The fact that there's been no hurricanes so far means absolutely nothing."

Federal forecasters' move Thursday follows that of Colorado State University hurricane researcher William Gray, who slightly lowered his forecast last week.

Gray's initial projection called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense. He revised it to 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of them intense.

After the battering by storms Katrina and Rita in 2005, there were widespread fears last summer of another powerful storm striking. But the unexpected development of El Nino — the periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters that affects wind patterns and tends to result in fewer Atlantic storms — helped dampen conditions.

No destructive storms hit the U.S. last year, but forecasters warned this year that El Nino is over, which could prompt conditions that encourage the development of additional storms.

Bell conceded that forecasters overestimated the amount of tropical activity last year, but indicated he was more confident this season.

"The reason was that we failed to forecast the rapidly developing El Nino," he said. "This year there's no chance of an El Nino."

August typically marks the start of the most frenetic months of Atlantic weather.

Last year, there were 10 tropical storms in the Atlantic and just two made landfall in the United States